Census Bureau · Survey of Construction
U.S. New Home Sales, 1963–2024
Annual new single-family home sales from the U.S. Census Bureau, 1963 to present. The series peaked at 1.28 million units in 2005 and bottomed at 306,000 in 2011 — a four-fold drawdown that took builders most of a decade to walk back.
— Data through full-year 2024.
Annual U.S. New Home Sales (1963–2024)
Notable Cycles
Four genuine peaks, four wholly different recoveries.
New construction is the more cyclical half of the U.S. housing market. From the 2005 peak of 1.28M, sales fell 76% to 306K by 2011 — the deepest builder downturn since the Great Depression. The current cycle has yet to reclaim 2005 levels.Definitions
- Sales
units, K or M - Price
median, current $ - Rate
30-yr fixed, % APR - SAAR
Census - EHS
NAR - PMMS
Freddie Mac - Recession
NBER monthly
What New Home Sales Measure
The Census Bureau's New Residential Sales release counts contract signings on speculatively-built single-family homes — units a builder constructed without a specific buyer in mind, then sold (or contracted to sell) to a household. Owner-built homes, custom-built homes on the buyer's land, and multifamily units are excluded. The series is the U.S.'s sharpest leading indicator for residential construction: sales are recorded at contract signing, not at closing, so they lead housing starts, builder revenues, and the median new-home price series by months.
The 2005 Peak and the Builder Decade
The 2005 peak of 1.28 million units was the highest reading in the modern record — driven by subprime mortgage origination that brought millions of marginal buyers into the new-construction market. The collapse that followed was the deepest builder downturn since the Great Depression: sales fell 76% to 306K by 2011, builder bankruptcies wiped out roughly 40% of the homebuilder universe, and the survivors spent a decade cleaning up balance sheets. Even today's reading of 679K — twenty years after the peak — sits at 53% of the 2005 high. The gap reflects the post-2008 retreat from speculative-build inventory toward build-to-order construction, plus three decades of zoning tightening in major metros.
Reading the Cycle
New construction's share of total U.S. home sales has averaged 12–15% since 1968 but has run as low as 7% (2011) and as high as 21% (1973). When the share rises, builders are gaining ground; when it falls, the resale channel dominates. For a year-by-year comparison of how the new-vs-existing split has shifted, see the market share view. The current rate-lock environment — 7% prevailing rates against ~4% locked-in rates on existing mortgages — has artificially elevated new-construction share by suppressing resale supply.