Census Bureau · Survey of Construction
U.S. New Home Sales, 1963–2024
Annual new single-family home sales from the U.S. Census Bureau, 1963 to present. The series peaked at 1.28 million units in 2005 and bottomed at 306,000 in 2011 — a four-fold drawdown that took builders most of a decade to walk back.
Source U.S. Census Bureau
Series New single-family sales
Frequency Annual, SAAR-based
Range 1963 – 2024
About the Data
Three federal series, one continuous record.
The U.S. Census Bureau's New Residential Sales survey is the federal government's primary measure of the new single-family housing market. Published monthly (with a 5–6 week lag), the survey counts homes where a purchase contract has been signed or a deposit accepted — not completions or closings. This "contract-signed" definition makes it the earliest leading indicator in the housing pipeline, leading existing-home sales by roughly 4–6 weeks and housing starts by 2–4 months.
The sampling methodology covers a probability sample of building permit offices in approximately 900 permit-issuing jurisdictions. Homes sold without a permit — relatively rare in established metro areas — are excluded. The annual figures presented here are the sum of monthly units across the calendar year, converted from the Bureau's seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis to actual annual units. The data has been revised several times since 1963 as sampling frames changed; the Almanac uses the most recent benchmark revision in all historical tables.
New construction has historically accounted for 10–15% of all U.S. residential sales in any given year, with the share peaking at 21% in 1973 and troughing at 7% in 2011. The volatility of this series — a 76% peak-to-trough collapse between 2005 and 2011 — far exceeds anything in the existing-home-sales record, because builders can cut production in ways that existing owners cannot. A homeowner who doesn't want to sell at the current price simply stays; a builder who doesn't want to sell at the current price can stop building, but carries land and development-loan carrying costs the whole time they wait.
The median new-home sale price, also published in this series, reflects the mix shift in construction toward larger homes over time. The median new home in 2024 at $458,200 is 25-fold larger in nominal dollars than the $18,000 median in 1963 — but is also roughly 1,000 square feet larger on average, has central air conditioning (rare in 1963 construction), and typically includes a two-car garage and modern kitchen. Comparing nominal prices across six decades without adjusting for quality or size conveys misleading conclusions about pure price appreciation.
Notable Cycles
Four genuine peaks, four wholly different recoveries.
No federal housing series has experienced drawdowns as severe as new-home sales. The series has produced four major bear markets since 1963, each driven by distinct forces.
The Volcker collapse (1978–1982): New sales fell from 817K in 1978 to 412K in 1982 — a 50% decline over four years. The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 16.63% in 1981, pricing out the bulk of the demand pool. Builders compounded the problem by starting homes in 1980–1981 at rates appropriate for a 9–10% mortgage environment; when rates hit 16%, the partially-built inventory became unsalable without ruinous concessions. Months-of-supply reached 14.5, well above the historical 6-month equilibrium. Recovery was swift once rates fell: sales rebounded from 412K in 1982 to 688K in 1985 as the 30-year rate eased to 12.43%.
The subprime collapse (2005–2011): The deepest bear market in the history of this series. New-home sales peaked at 1.283 million in 2005 — propelled by easy credit, investor speculation, and subprime origination that allowed buyers with minimal down payments and documentation to enter the market. From that peak, sales fell to 306,000 by 2011, a 76% collapse over six years. The absolute trough in 2011 was the lowest annual reading since the Census series began in 1963. Recovery was the slowest on record: constrained by tight construction lending, labor shortages, and land-cost inflation, new-home sales did not reach 800K again until 2020.
The post-pandemic trajectory (2022–2024): Unlike existing-home sales, new construction held up better in the 2022–2024 rate environment. When the Federal Reserve's hiking cycle pushed mortgage rates above 7% in 2023, builders responded with aggressive rate buydowns — permanently buying down the buyer's rate to 5–6% — and design concessions. Sales held at 644K–679K in 2022–2024, roughly flat with the 2016–2017 pace. As of 2024, new-home sales represent 14.3% of all U.S. residential transactions, up from 7% at the 2011 trough, precisely because the rate lock-in has kept existing inventory off the market.
Definitions
- Sales
units, K or M
- Price
median, current $
- Rate
30-yr fixed, % APR
- SAAR
Census
- EHS
NAR
- PMMS
Freddie Mac
- Recession
NBER monthly