Each year's share of total U.S. home sales between new construction and existing-home inventory. New homes have averaged 12–15% of all transactions; the share has run as high as 21% (1973) and as low as 7% (2011).
— Data through full-year 2024.
new_sales / (new_sales + existing_sales) per year, with both numerator and denominator in equivalent units. The split tells you how much of the housing market clears through builders versus the resale channel.
units, K or Mmedian, current $30-yr fixed, % APRCensusNARFreddie MacNBER monthlyMarket share captures how much of the housing market clears through builders versus the resale channel. When the new-construction share rises, builders are gaining ground; when it falls, existing-home inventory dominates the market. Over the 1968–2024 record, new homes have averaged 12–15% of all U.S. residential transactions, but the share has ranged from 21% in 1973 (the post-war suburbanization peak) to 7% in 2011 (the post-subprime foreclosure flood, when distressed resale inventory swamped the market).
New construction's share has fallen secularly since the 1970s as the existing-housing stock grew. From a 1973 peak of 21%, the share averaged 17% in the 1980s, 15% in the 1990s, and roughly 13% from 2000–2005. The post-2008 builder collapse pushed it to a record low of 7% in 2011 — a level it took the homebuilding industry nearly a decade to recover from. The current rebound to 14% reflects the rate-lock dynamic suppressing resale supply: existing-home sales at 4.06M in 2024 are the lowest since 1995, while new-home sales at 679K have held up surprisingly well, tilting the share toward builders without absolute new-construction strength.
The numerator is annual new-home contract signings from the Census Bureau's New Residential Sales release — speculatively-built single-family construction only. The denominator is the sum of new-home sales and NAR existing-home closed transactions. Owner-built homes, multifamily units, and rental conversions are excluded from both. For the year-by-year accounting, see the master data table; for cycle-by-cycle context, the recession explainers walk through the structural forces behind each shift.