About the Data
Three federal series, one continuous record.
The two median price series in the Almanac — one from the Census Bureau for new construction, one from NAR for existing homes — are the most widely cited housing price benchmarks in U.S. public policy. Both measure the median (the midpoint, not the average) of closed-transaction sale prices in a given period, expressed in current nominal dollars without inflation adjustment. They are not repeat-sales indices, which means they reflect compositional changes in what's being sold (larger homes, more expensive markets, different quality) as well as pure price appreciation.
The new-construction median from Census captures single-family homes where a purchase contract was signed in the survey period. It is published alongside the New Residential Sales release and has run continuously since 1963. The existing-home median from NAR captures all property types (single-family, condo, co-op, townhome) closed through MLS, running since 1968. The two series diverge meaningfully at times: in 2024, the median new home ($458,200) commanded a 12.3% premium over the median existing home ($408,000), reflecting the larger size, newer systems, and energy efficiency of new construction — as well as the fact that builders concentrate activity in land-constrained suburban and exurban markets where land costs are high.
Price series reported in nominal dollars can mislead when compared across long periods. In real terms (adjusted for CPI-U inflation), the 1968 median existing home of $20,100 equates to roughly $179,000 in 2024 dollars — meaning real prices have approximately doubled over 56 years, not risen 20-fold. The 2005 existing-home peak of $219,000 equates to roughly $345,000 in 2024 dollars, suggesting that the nominal 2024 price of $408,000 represents about 18% real appreciation above the subprime-era peak after two decades. This is historically high but not unprecedented: real home prices also significantly exceeded prior cycle peaks during the late-1970s inflation surge.
What makes the 2020–2024 price environment distinctive is the combination of rising prices and falling volume. In every prior price cycle, high prices eventually attracted enough sellers to stabilize or reverse the trend. The 2022–2024 period broke that pattern: rate lock-in kept sellers out of the market, maintaining inventory at historic lows and preventing the normal price-clearing mechanism from working.
Notable Cycles
Four genuine peaks, four wholly different recoveries.
Home price cycles since 1968 have been defined by four distinct episodes, each with a different driver and a different resolution.
The inflation-driven run (1968–1981): Median existing-home prices rose from $20,100 in 1968 to $66,400 in 1981 — a 230% nominal increase over 13 years, much of it driven by general inflation rather than housing-specific factors. During this period, owning a home was widely understood to be an inflation hedge: when CPI ran at 10–13%, any real asset with locked-in debt financing at 10–12% provided a positive real return. The median home rose from 2.5× to 3.3× median household income over this period — still within the historical range of affordability by modern standards.
The Volcker-era price floor (1982–1991): Unlike sales volume, which collapsed 50%, median prices barely declined during the Volcker recession. The median existing home fell from $70,300 in 1983 to $70,300 in 1984 — essentially flat — and remained stable through the S&L crisis, illustrating the nominal price rigidity that is characteristic of housing markets. Sellers withdrew rather than accept below-market prices, keeping the median stable even as volume fell. The only meaningful national price decline in this period was in oil-patch states (Texas, Oklahoma) hit by the 1986 oil price crash, which produced regional price declines of 15–25% concentrated in Houston, Dallas, and Tulsa.
The subprime boom and bust (2002–2011): Existing-home prices peaked at $219,000 in 2005, having risen 67% from $131,200 in 1999 — roughly 3.5× the rate of general inflation. The subsequent decline brought the median to $166,200 by 2011, a 24% peak-to-trough decline — the largest national price correction in the modern record. New-home prices were even more volatile, falling from $247,900 in 2007 to $221,800 in 2010 as builders cut prices aggressively to move distressed inventory.
The pandemic price surge (2020–2024): The existing-home median rose from $295,300 in 2020 to $408,000 in 2024 — a 38% increase in four years. Unlike the 2002–2005 surge, this one occurred against a backdrop of constrained supply rather than excess credit; the FHFA repeat-sales index confirms that quality-adjusted prices rose roughly in line with the NAR median. The 2024 median represents the highest nominal and real existing-home price in the history of the series.
Definitions
- Sales
units, K or M
- Price
median, current $
- Rate
30-yr fixed, % APR
- SAAR
Census
- EHS
NAR
- PMMS
Freddie Mac
- Recession
NBER monthly