About the Data
Three federal series, one continuous record.
The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) is the most widely cited benchmark for U.S. mortgage rates. Published weekly since April 1971, the survey collects data from a panel of lenders on the rates and points they are charging for first-lien, conventional, conforming, fully-amortizing 30-year and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Reported rates reflect the commitment rate — the rate locked at application, not at closing — and exclude the effect of discount points (though Freddie Mac publishes associated point averages alongside). The survey has been revised several times: a major change in methodology in November 2022 shifted from a lender panel to actual closed-loan data from Freddie Mac's own acquisitions, which reduced the survey's volatility but introduced a slight level shift.
The Almanac aggregates weekly PMMS observations to annual averages by simple arithmetic mean. These annual averages are the most appropriate basis for comparing with the annual Census and NAR sales data, which also represent full-year averages rather than point-in-time readings. The annual average smooths the within-year volatility that characterizes the rate series — in 2022, for example, the 30-year rate ranged from 3.22% in January to 7.08% in October, with an annual average of 5.34%.
Mortgage rates are the single most powerful variable in housing market affordability. A one-percentage-point change in the 30-year rate on a $300,000 loan changes the monthly principal-and-interest payment by approximately $175. At the 2021 annual average of 2.96%, the monthly payment on the median existing-home purchase (with 20% down on $357,100 = $285,680 financed) was approximately $1,199. At the 2024 annual average of 6.84%, the monthly payment on the (higher) median home (with 20% down on $408,000 = $326,400 financed) was approximately $2,139 — a 78% increase in monthly obligation from 2021 to 2024, against a 14% increase in median household income.
This affordability squeeze explains the rate lock-in that defines the 2022–2024 market: roughly 60% of outstanding U.S. mortgages in 2024 carried a rate below 4%, meaning the typical existing homeowner faced a payment increase of 60–100% if they sold and rebought at current rates. The rational response — stay put — produced the inventory freeze that simultaneously suppressed transaction volume and kept prices elevated.
Notable Cycles
Four genuine peaks, four wholly different recoveries.
The 54-year mortgage rate record divides cleanly into three eras, separated by two structural turning points that determined the direction of rates for a decade or more.
The inflationary ascent (1971–1981): The 30-year fixed rate entered the PMMS series at 7.54% in 1971 and rose steadily through the decade as the Federal Reserve accommodated inflation rather than fighting it. The first OPEC oil shock in 1973 pushed rates to 8.04%; the second oil shock in 1979 — combined with Paul Volcker's October 1979 regime change to reserve targeting — sent rates on a vertical trajectory. The annual average reached 16.63% in 1981, the highest in the 53-year history of the series. The weekly peak was 18.45% in October 1981. At these rates, the U.S. housing market effectively closed: fewer homes transacted in 1982 than in any year since the 1940s.
The secular decline (1982–2021): The most consequential trend in U.S. housing history. From the 1981 peak, the 30-year rate fell in a roughly uninterrupted trend for 40 years, reaching 2.96% in 2021 — the lowest annual reading in the 50-year series. This decline was not smooth: rates briefly rose above 10% in 1990, touched 8.05% in 2000, and ran at 6.97% in 2001 and 6.41% in 2006. But the direction was unmistakably downward, powered by falling inflation, the global savings glut, Federal Reserve policy, and the development of the agency MBS market. Every major housing boom from 1983 forward was directly enabled by this declining-rate tailwind. The 2003 refi boom (5.83%), the 2012–2018 recovery (3.66%–4.54%), and the 2020–2021 pandemic surge (3.11%–2.96%) all rode successive legs of the secular decline.
The 2022 rate shock: The fastest increase in the 30-year fixed rate since the Volcker era. From 3.11% in 2020 to 5.34% in 2022 to 6.81% in 2023 — a 370-basis-point jump in 36 months in response to the Federal Reserve's most aggressive tightening cycle since 1981. Unlike the Volcker era, this increase occurred against a backdrop of historically low housing inventory (the existing stock of for-sale homes), which prevented the price correction that would normally accompany such a rate spike. By 2024, rates averaged 6.84% — the highest annual average since 2002 — and the U.S. housing market remained in a state of suspended animation: prices elevated, volume depressed, and affordability at its worst level in 40 years.
Definitions
- Sales
units, K or M
- Price
median, current $
- Rate
30-yr fixed, % APR
- SAAR
Census
- EHS
NAR
- PMMS
Freddie Mac
- Recession
NBER monthly