Freddie Mac · Primary Mortgage Market Survey
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate History, 1971–2024
Annual averages of the 30-year fixed conventional mortgage rate from Freddie Mac's PMMS, 1971 to today. The 50-year span runs from a Volcker peak of 16.63% in 1981 to a pandemic-era trough of 2.96% in 2021.
— Data through full-year 2024.
U.S. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (1971–2024)
Notable Cycles
Four genuine peaks, four wholly different recoveries.
Rates spent the 1980s in double digits, fell below 7% only once in 1971 itself and again in 1998, then dropped under 4% for most of 2012–2021 before the Fed's 2022 hiking cycle returned them above 6%. The 2.96% 2021 reading remains a 50-year low.Definitions
- Sales
units, K or M - Price
median, current $ - Rate
30-yr fixed, % APR - SAAR
Census - EHS
NAR - PMMS
Freddie Mac - Recession
NBER monthly
How the PMMS Series Is Constructed
The Primary Mortgage Market Survey has tracked 30-year fixed conventional mortgage rates weekly since April 1971. Freddie Mac surveys roughly 80 lenders nationwide each Monday, asking the rate for a 0.5–0.7-point loan to a borrower with a 740+ FICO and a 75% loan-to-value ratio. The Almanac aggregates those weekly readings into annual averages for comparability with the Census and NAR sales series. Reported PMMS rates exclude points and fees — the all-in cost of borrowing is typically 0.4–0.7 percentage points higher than the headline rate.
The Volcker Peak and the 2021 Trough
Rates spent the 1980s in double digits, peaking at 16.63% in 1981 as the Federal Reserve under Paul Volcker pushed the federal funds rate above 19% to break the wage-price spiral. On a $100,000 loan, that 1981 rate produced a monthly principal-and-interest payment of $1,393 — versus $646 at today's 6.72% rate on the same balance. Rates fell below 7% only once in 1971 itself and again in 1998, then dropped under 4% for most of 2012–2021 before the Fed's 2022 hiking cycle returned them above 6%. The 2.96% reading in 2021 remains a 50-year low; for the structural reasons it could not hold, see the pandemic surge explainer.
What Drives the 30-Year Rate
The 30-year fixed is benchmarked to the 10-year Treasury yield plus a roughly 150–200 basis-point spread that reflects mortgage prepayment risk, securitization costs, and credit losses. The Federal Reserve influences the 10-year Treasury through monetary policy expectations, but the actual mortgage rate also moves with the demand for mortgage-backed securities, the conforming loan limit, and the secondary-market activity at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. For the full transmission mechanism, see How does the Fed affect housing?.