New Home SalesCENSUS
683K
U.S. Housing Market · 2019
U.S. Housing Market in 2019
Existing SalesNAR
5.34M
Median PriceNAR
$271,900
30Y MortgagePMMS
3.94%
In 2019, the U.S. housing market recorded existing-home sales averaged 5.34 million, new-construction sales of 683K, and a 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 3.94%.
Existing-home sales fell 0.0% from 2018. the median existing-home price rose 3.9% to $271,900. the 30-year fixed mortgage fell 0.60 percentage points to 3.94%.
By the numbers — 2019: new-home sales 683K, existing-home sales 5.34M, median existing price $271,900, 30-year mortgage rate 3.94%.
Macroeconomic Context
Nineteen ninety-nine had been a year of rate hikes and dot-com exuberance; 2019 reversed the rate direction without the equivalent equity boom. The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate three times during the year — in July, September, and October — reversing a full year's worth of 2018 tightening and pushing the funds rate back to a range of 1.50 to 1.75 percent. Chair Jerome Powell framed the cuts as a "mid-cycle adjustment" in response to global growth headwinds — the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, slowing European growth, and Brexit uncertainty — rather than the beginning of an easing cycle in response to recession risk. GDP grew approximately 2.3 percent.
Consumer price inflation averaged around 2.3 percent — essentially at the Fed's target. Unemployment remained near 3.5 percent, a 50-year low, and wage growth ran roughly 3 percent annually. The U.S.-China Phase One trade deal was announced in December, easing some of the tariff uncertainty that had weighed on business sentiment. The United Kingdom's Brexit drama continued, with Boris Johnson's election in December and a subsequent agreement with the EU setting the stage for the actual departure in January 2020.
Thirty-year mortgage rates fell sharply as the Fed cut rates, dropping from the 4.5 to 4.9 percent range that had characterized late 2018 back to approximately 3.7 to 3.9 percent by year-end. The rate reversal was immediately visible in housing activity: existing-home sales recovered, mortgage applications surged, and the inventory constraint — not cost of capital — re-emerged as the market's primary bottleneck. Median prices resumed appreciation after the 2018 pause, and builders increased starts modestly in response to improving conditions.