Short answer. Months of supply hit an all-time low of 1.6 months in early 2022 — by far the tightest reading in NAR's series. The 2021 annual average of 1.7 months remains the lowest annual reading in the modern record.
| Year | Months of Supply (existing homes) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2005 | ~4.0 | Near-bubble conditions |
| 2012 | ~6.2 | Post-crash normal |
| 2021 | ~1.7 | All-time low (modern series) |
| 2022 | ~2.4 | Rising rates slow demand |
| 2024 | ~3.2 | Still historically tight |
The U.S. existing-home months-of-supply metric, tracked by the National Association of Realtors, hit an all-time low of 1.6 months in January 2022 — well below the 2.6-month low of the previous cycle (May 2005) and the 4.0-month long-run average. The 2021 annual reading of 1.7 months and the 2022 annual reading of 2.6 months are the two lowest annual figures in the modern series.
The collapse from normal to record-low
The pre-pandemic baseline (2017–2019) ran 3.5–4.5 months of supply — already tight by historical standards but within normal range. The pandemic-era trajectory:
- 2019: 3.9 months avg
- 2020: 2.6 months avg
- 2021: 1.7 months avg (record annual low)
- 2022: 2.6 months avg
- 2023: 3.1 months avg
- 2024: 3.5–4.0 months avg (gradually rebuilding)
What drove the historic low
Three forces compounded simultaneously: (1) sub-3% mortgage rates pulled forward demand from 2022–2023, concentrating buyers in 2020–2021; (2) the pandemic-era remote-work flexibility expanded the geographic search radius for many buyers, intensifying competition for listings; (3) the same low rates locked in existing homeowners and reduced the seller-side flow that normally replenishes inventory.
The 2024 read — low for a different reason
The 2024 reading of 3.5–4.0 months remains historically low, but the cause is now structurally different. Buyer demand has cooled substantially with 6.84% rates, but seller-side listings have collapsed even faster — the rate-lock era means existing homeowners with 3% mortgages choose to stay rather than face a 7% replacement. The metric reads "tight market" but it is not the seller's market that the textbook reading would imply. Active listings remain near 1.0M units against a long-run norm of 1.6–1.8M.
How it ends
Months of supply will normalize when one of three conditions holds: rates fall enough to dissolve the lock-in (probably below 5%), the locked-in mortgage cohort ages out organically through life-event moves (a 5–7 year process), or new construction makes up the gap (currently running below trend). All three pathways are slow.
Related
- Housing inventory dashboard
- Q&A — What is a balanced housing market?
- Q&A — Rate-lock effect on housing inventory
- Q&A — What is the rate-lock effect?
- The Rate-Lock Era, 2022–Present
Sources
U.S. Census Bureau Survey of Construction; National Association of Realtors Existing Home Sales report; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey; National Bureau of Economic Research Business Cycle Dating Committee.