U.S. Housing Market in 2005
2005 was the absolute peak of the U.S. housing cycle. New-home sales reached 1.28 million, existing sales 7.08 million, and combined transactions 8.36 million — figures that have not been matched in the 19 years since.
Almost everything that drove the 2005 print was unsustainable. Subprime origination peaked at $625B (about 21% of all mortgages). Stated-income loans were 40% of subprime originations. Median existing-home prices crossed $219,000 — up 17.4% YoY, the largest single-year jump in the NAR series until 2021. 30-year fixed rates were 5.87%; teaser-rate ARMs were significantly cheaper, pulling marginal buyers into homes they could only afford at the introductory rate. The ratio of home prices to median income hit 4.2x — a level not seen since the 1970s. Within three years total sales would fall by half.