Short answer. Modern (post-1968) U.S. existing-home sales hit their absolute low at 1.99 million in 1982. The recent 2024 reading of 4.06 million was the lowest since 1995.
Existing-home sales hit two notable lows:
- 1982: 1.99M — the absolute low of the modern series, set during the Volcker recession when 30-year mortgage rates were 16.04%.
- 2024: 4.06M — the lowest since 1995, driven by rate-lock dynamics.
The two lows reflect very different problems
The 1982 low was an affordability collapse. With mortgage rates above 16% and unemployment near 11%, the marginal buyer simply could not qualify for a mortgage at any income.
The 2024 low is a supply problem. There are plenty of qualified buyers — but listings are scarce because 76% of mortgaged owners hold loans below 5% and refuse to sell into a 6.8% market.
Implications
The 1982 low resolved as soon as Volcker began cutting rates (1985 sales: 3.13M). The 2024 low could resolve through any of: (1) a Fed cutting cycle that brings prevailing mortgage rates back below 5%; (2) a recession that forces involuntary listings; (3) a slow grind of life events (divorce, death, job change) overcoming the lock-in effect over multiple years.
Sources
U.S. Census Bureau Survey of Construction; National Association of Realtors Existing Home Sales report; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey; National Bureau of Economic Research Business Cycle Dating Committee.