Short answer. The 1971–2024 average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is approximately 7.7%. The post-2000 average is about 5.4%; the post-2010 average is about 4.6%.
Computing a "historical average" depends entirely on the window:
- Full PMMS series (1971–2024): ~7.7% annual average
- Post-2000: ~5.4%
- Post-2010: ~4.6%
- The 1980s: ~12.7%
- The 1990s: ~8.1%
- The 2000s: ~6.3%
Why the headline "historical average" is misleading
The 7.7% long-run average is dominated by the inflationary 1980s. Of the 54 years in the PMMS series, only 14 saw annual averages below 5%. So 5% is below average; 7% is below average; "the historical average" is not the right anchor for thinking about today's rates.
What's the right comparison?
Most analysts use the post-2000 average of ~5.4% as the practical equilibrium baseline — long enough to span a full housing cycle, short enough to exclude the structural inflation regime of the late 1970s and 1980s.
Sources
U.S. Census Bureau Survey of Construction; National Association of Realtors Existing Home Sales report; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey; National Bureau of Economic Research Business Cycle Dating Committee.